Too big to fail, 2008, too small to win, 2021

In Oscar Wilde’s Lady Windemere’s Fan, Lord Darlington quips, “a cynic is a man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing.” But maybe Lord Darlington has it all wrong? Perhaps the correlation between price and value is a lot shakier and more ethereal than we think? Last week’s action in the stock market, which pitted the

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Prediction Markets — One Giant Leap for Bettors

When Neil Armstrong stepped on the moon over fifty years ago, he took a small step for man and a giant leap for both mankind and bettors everywhere as this was the first time a bookmaker accepted a bet on a non-sports related event. As Todd Dewey explains in his Las Vegas Review-Journal article, Bookmaker William Hill lost bets when US landed on

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The House Doesn’t Always Win, Sometimes It Cheats

“The house always wins” is a familiar saying to anyone who has visited a casino, and, although it’s a truism, sometimes the house doesn’t always win. Sometimes it tries to cheat or at least bend the rules and take advantage of questionable situations. Sometimes what you think is the house is something entirely different. Some VIP customers discovered this, much

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Prediction Markets — Smart Contracts, Brilliant Bets

I think we can safely say 2020 didn’t quite turn out the way most of us had expected when the calendar turned from December 31st into January 1st about a year ago. Few envisioned a pandemic that would shut down world travel, grind business to a halt, and see governments around the world pumping money into economies that fell off

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How Prediction Markets Work

Gambling — the wagering of something valuable on an event of an uncertain outcome with the primary intent of winning additional money or material goods — is something man has been doing across his thousands of years of human history. Greek mythology tells the story of the three brothers Poseidon, Zeus, and Hades drawing lots to divide the world between

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